FTL Capacity Crunch in the North American Freight Market

What We Mean by “Freight Capacity Crunch” and Why the Canada–US Border Reacts So Sensitively

Capacity means there are available trucks with available drivers at the right time in the right place. When demand rises faster than the supply, a capacity crunch forms, and suddenly it becomes difficult for shippers to secure a truck at all.

That’s exactly why cross-border lanes often react more strongly than domestic freight. A cross-border load is not just “one more shipment,” but a shipment with extra steps and legal documentation (customs documents, appointment windows, risk, inspections, etc.). As soon as that ratio changes, effective capacity shrinks, even if there are technically enough trucks.

The scale is enormous. The Canada Border Services Agency reports that for 2025 alone, there were more than 5.5 million truck drivers in highway traffic; additionally, it lists more than 5million trucks on highways for cargo transport in the same time period.

On the USA side, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows that in 2025, there were 12.86 million inbound truck crossings at land borders; along the northern border segment, it reports “Trucks from Canada” reduced by 5.1% (2025 vs. 2024).

These numbers don’t explain why something falls or rises. But they show that even small percentage shifts can mean thousands of driver-trailer days that suddenly effectively disappear in the real world.

Tariff Turmoil Plus an Enforcement Surge

The current capacity pressure is not (only) weather, not (only) season, not (only) “the usual cycles.” In the background, two major political forces are at play and reinforcing each other: tariff uncertainty and enforcement, especially in the transport-regulatory environment.

The Supreme Court of the United States ruled on February 20, 2026 (6–3) that the government did not have the authority to impose global tariffs under emergency powers (including a finding that IEEPA does not provide tariff power at this scale).

That represents a legal turning point, mainly because it represents more uncertainty. It means we have to wonder what happens now, and when does it happen?

At the same time, the unwinding of already-paid tariffs remains unclear. FedEx filed for refunds of duties paid under the emergency tariffs. In fact, potentially more than $175 billion USD in tariff revenues could become contested in the refund context.

Why does this matter for truck capacity? Companies front-load imports ahead of deadlines, hold freight back when they sense increases, and redesign supply chains when there’s reason to. In practice, that creates waves instead of an even flow. The aforementioned waves are exactly what eats up capacity. Everybody wants trucks at the same time, and on the same border crossings.

Why Politics Mean Fewer Available Truck Hours

A key driver right now is the fact that the trucking market is seeing no increase in demand, and still experiencing higher rates, more tender rejections, and load-to-truck ratios if the supply of deployable drivers is low. Per an analysis framed around an RXO market report, the most important KPI highs are not being driven by demand revival, but by a dramatic supply shock — including enforcement around English proficiency and non-domiciled CDLs.

What does that mean in plain freight terms?

More risk means fewer drivers saying “yes”

If drivers (or dispatchers) feel that a cross-border run now comes with higher personal risk — for example, because inspections or faulty documentation feel like they could lead to detention or other consequences, rather than a simple refusal, the load is simply refused.

Risk has a price. If the price isn’t paid (or can’t be paid), capacity suffers.

More inspection time means fewer runs per week

More scans, more secondary inspections, more systems, and more staff constraints reduce the number of runs per truck per week.

A recent Government Accountability Office report describes the expansion of large-scale “non-intrusive inspection” systems at land ports of entry, which include scans in pre-primary zones to significantly increase the number of vehicles scanned. At the same time, they are trying to mitigate limiting factors such as staffing shortages and system outages.

Detention volume and enforcement reach

TRAC reported in early February 2026 that 68,289 people were in ICE detention, with 73.6% having no recorded criminal conviction; it also reported nearly 180,000 people monitored in Alternatives to Detention programs.

This isn’t trucking-specific, but it helps showcase the environment in which discussions about border crossings and compliance have become more prominent among drivers..

In the fall of 2025 for example, “Operation Midway Blitz” was conducted as a major ICE enforcement wave, especially around Chicago, and it received significant media coverage.

Another widely reported case is that of a police officer arrested during the operation, as local officials emphasized he was authorized to work. Incidents such as this might be a factor, among others, for why cross-border freight has reduced by roughly 5% YoY..

And trucking-specific incidents, such as a report on a roadway enforcement action in Indiana cited 223 arrests, including 146 drivers (46 of which were semi-truck drivers), and referenced CDLs from many states.

Cases such as these rationalize fear

Seven Days reported on cases involving Afghan truck drivers in the US. who, after a navigation error toward Canada, was detained at the northern border. The legal proceedings are still in progress, but the driver is shown to have existing work authorization..”

Individually, cases such as these do not necessarily represent the experience of most drivers. However, highly publicized incidents such as these can influence opinions within the industry about cross-border operations.

A fair framing matters: these items do not prove that “most” Canadian drivers refuse crossing into the USA, but it’s important to note that even a small percentage of drivers who may be influenced by exposure to cases such as these can make a significant impact on truck capacity.

What This Means for Shippers

Volatility is eating away at planning and any semblance of certainty when it comes to cross-border shipping.

Current data suggests traffic isn’t simply “gone” — it’s shifting. BTS reports fewer truck crossings from Canada overall along the northern border in 2025 (YoY -5.1%), but also notable shifts between ports (for example, lower volume in Detroit, higher in Port Huron).

In other words, even if the total volume dips modestly, specific crossings, partnerships, and time windows can still suffer and change.

Despite the dip in cross-border truck volume, the value side remains huge. BTS reported $81.6B in transborder freight by truck in December 2025 (YoY +5.2%), and $127.8B transborder freight total (across all freight modes).

What Shippers and Carriers Can Do Now

Planning and booking

More lead time right now isn’t “nice to have.” It is a way to combat shrinking spot capacity.

That’s why you should also expand your carrier pool.

If one carrier is “full” or internally limits cross-border risk exposure, relying on one provider can mean you stop moving. More carrier options means a higher chance that somewhere there’s still a driver with the willingness and eligibility to run the lane.

In short, cross-border freight is a documentation game, and the more politicized the environment, the less error tolerance there appears to be.

Conclusion

If you ship cross-border, you can build a support network, using Freightera, for example.

Carriers or drivers may refuse a shipment, but such an event doesn’t have to put your entire business on hold. If you have multiple carriers to choose from, you can safely and reliably plan your shipments well ahead of time.

Sign up at Freightera today, and see for yourself how seamless and easy freight shipping can be, despite capacity or trust issues. You can always trust in Freightera.

And if you have any questions, please feel free to reach out via online chat, by email, or call us at (800) 886 4870.