A Cooling Trade War Heats Up Supply Chains

What the U.S.-China Tariff Truce Means for Shipping and How to Stay Ahead

A 90‑Day Reprieve That Moves Markets

On 12. May 2025, Washington and Beijing announced a 90‑day mutual tariff cut that has reduced most U.S. duties on Chinese goods from the 60–120 % range to about 30 % and China’s retaliatory rates have been reduced by similar amounts. The deal also lowers the once‑controversial de minimis levy on low‑value parcels to as little as 30 %—half the 2024 level. Yale’s Budget Lab estimates the move erases roughly 40 % of 2025’s tariff drag on U.S. GDP if the new rates stay in place.

Financial markets cheered, but the calendar is ticking. With only three months of reduced costs, many importers are in a rush to save as much as possible before the window closes.

Immediate Shockwaves in Ocean Freight

News of a 90‑day tariff holiday jolted trans‑Pacific lanes almost overnight. There’s been an 18 % jump in container bookings recorded from China to the U.S. West Coast during the first forty‑eight hours after the announcement, which has effectively moved the traditional August, September peak freight shipping season into late spring.

Ocean carriers reacted just as quickly, tacking on “special surcharges” of USD 900–2 000 per forty‑foot equivalent unit (FEU). Spot rates that averaged about $2200 USD the week before the news are now trending toward $3500 USD.

Analysts warn that the sudden rush could keep vessel space tight well into July, squeezing any importer that failed to secure capacity early and pushing them into costly last‑minute auctions.

What It Means Inland

Higher container volumes at U.S. and Canadian gateways inevitably spill over to truck and rail. Extra pallets coming into Seattle, Los Angeles/Long Beach, and Vancouver are already improving FTL capacity on lanes such as Seattle–Chicago, LA/LB–Dallas, and Vancouver–Calgary. Even if only a fraction of the ocean surge transfers to road freight, the sudden demand is making up for the excess FTL capacity that kept line‑haul rates lower through the first quarter of 2025.

Shippers who had grown comfortable with five‑ to seven‑day booking windows are now discovering that the buffer has shrunk to forty‑eight hours or less.

On the rail side, terminals report longer container dwell times while trucks queue for available chassis, which is all leading to a rise in detention fees and chassis shortages as summer is getting closer.

Longer‑Term Scenarios After Day 90

Policy analysts see the tariff pause as a fork in the road. 

One outcome is the “truce‑to‑framework” scenario, which would convert the ninety‑day grace period into phased, permanent tariff reductions. That stability would allow U.S. retailers to rebuild inventories, and to keep import volumes and associated inland freight demand elevated for the rest of the year.

The other possibility is a snap‑back to 2024 duty levels (or higher) if talks stall. In that case, importers could face the worst of both worlds, from bloated warehouses stocked for a tariff‑free summer to long‑term carrier contracts priced for a market that no longer exists. The very uncertainty surrounding the truce is a negotiating lever, and it’s forcing businesses to plan for both outcomes until clarity emerges.

Three practical moves for shippers

1. Secure line‑haul rates sooner rather than later. Ocean prices may whipsaw, but domestic full‑truckload rates can still be locked fairly early. If you fix the rates now, you’ll have fewer surprises to worry about when the containers finally clear the port.
2. Keep mode options on the table. Compare FTL with intermodal before you commit. Rail capacity is looser and greener. If you transfer even one of your shipping routes to intermodal, you help free up trucks for higher‑priority loads for both you and your neighbors, while supporting your sustainability targets.
3. Tighten your accessorial game. As terminals crowd, carriers will re‑activate detention and demurrage fees. Precise appointment windows, pre‑cleared paperwork, and a plan for quick turn‑times can save hundreds of dollars per load.

Strike while the capacity is still moving

The surest way to lock dependable truckload (FTL) or less‑than‑truckload (LTL) space is to tap Freightera’s one-stop shipping platform today. Our Quote Machine™ lets you compare vetted carriers, get rates in minutes, and book the lane that fits just as quickly. No phone tag, no spreadsheets. 

Our Rate Defense™ program keeps any unfair last‑second surcharges at bay, so your booked rates remain your final rates. If you’re ready to keep freight moving while the iron’s hot, get an instant online freight quote, or contact us via online chat, by phone at (800) 886-4870 Ext. 1, or by email at [email protected].